Golden Boot 2025/26: Can Anyone Stop Salah?
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In the world of Premier League goalscoring, Mohamed Salah has become more than a contender, namely he’s a benchmark. After clinching his fourth Golden Boot in 2024/25, the Egyptian forward enters the new season with bookmakers positioning him as both a threat and a pricing anomaly, to be honest.
One thing is definitely sure: despite topping the scoring charts, his odds have shifted, and not because of performance concerns, but because the market is actually preparing for regression. In betting rooms, there’s even a phrase for this: “The Salah Tax”, which stands for a premium punters pay when reputation outweighs raw value.
Still, history reminds us that consecutive Golden Boot wins are rare, and the 2025/26 race might be more open than the odds suggest.
The Golden Boot Odds Breakdown: Market Reality vs. Value
Let’s break down the 2025/26 Golden Boot market by the numbers:
| Player | Club | Odds | Implied Probability | 2024/25 Goals | Goals per Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | Man City | 1/1 (50%) | 50% | 22 | 0.71 |
| Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 4/1 (20%) | 20% | 29 | 0.76 |
| Alexander Isak | Newcastle | 15/2 (12%) | 12% | 23 | 0.68 |
| Cole Palmer | Chelsea | 16/1 (6%) | 6% | 22 | 0.59 |
| Ollie Watkins | Aston Villa | 25/1 (4%) | 4% | 19 | 0.50 |
“Haaland remains as the favorite at -150, with the new EPL season set to start in just a few days,” Sports Betting Dime also notes.
Despite Salah outscoring everyone last season, his odds reflect the market’s assumption: lightning rarely strikes twice, especially at 33.
The Historical Cheat Sheet: Golden Boot Patterns
If Salah repeats, he’ll join a very exclusive club. Since the Premier League began in 1992:
- Only three players have won back-to-back Golden Boots: Alan Shearer (3 straight), Thierry Henry (3 straight), and Erling Haaland (2022/23, 2023/24).
- Salah, now 33, enters the statistical twilight. Few players over 32 have topped the scoring charts.
- According to the Premier League, Salah made history in 2024/25 by becoming the first player to win the Golden Boot, Playmaker, and EA SPORTS Player of the Season in the same season.
- He also matched the single-season record with 47 goal involvements (goals + assists).
The Henry comparison is telling: while Salah and Henry both hold four Golden Boots, Henry never won it past age 30. “Salah has also become the first player in history to win the Golden Boot, Playmaker, and EA SPORTS Player of the Season awards,” Premier League confirmed.
The Value Hunt: Where Smart Money Goes
Let’s look at the runners behind the throne:
- Haaland (1/1): Scored “only” 22 goals, and is still elite, but not his 36-goal debut standard. A classic bounce-back candidate.
- Isak (15/2): A quiet 23-goal season with no European distractions makes him Newcastle’s ace in the hole.
- Palmer (16/1): Chelsea’s creative engine could explode further in his sophomore year, only if he avoids second-season syndrome.
- Watkins (25/1): Undervalued, with solid finishing and consistency, though Villa’s UCL campaign may test his minutes.
Insider tip: The bookmakers’ biggest fear isn’t Salah repeating, it’s a ‘new name’ winner that they’ve priced as an afterthought.
If a 20/1+ striker who bagged 15+ goals last season finds early momentum, the value could be massive.
The Psych Trick: Why These Odds Trap Casual Punters
Golden Boot betting isn’t math, that it’s simply psychology. And that’s exactly how sportsbooks like it.
At BetterGambling, we’ve seen this before: markets bait casual bettors with recency bias. Salah’s name? Emotional magnet. His odds? Disguised traps.
Here’s what we’ve learned from sitting in those rooms: odds reflect what bookmakers want you to think, not what’s likely to happen.
The Debugged Belief: Form Always Follows Function
The Myth: Last season’s top scorer is the safest bet.
The Reality: Fixtures change, age creeps in, roles evolve, and, what we cannot ignore is the fact that defenses adapt fast.
Why It Matters: Simply because spotting declining efficiency early can save bankrolls before September.
Intel from the Inside: The Fixture Effect
Liverpool return to the Champions League, while Newcastle remain domestically focused. And that matters.
Why? Because form doesn’t survive three matches a week. UCL midweeks often mean weekend fatigue. Historically speaking, top scorers from non-UCL clubs punch above their weight.
This creates value blind spots, and that’s exactly where sharp punters look.
Reading the Lines: What the Market’s Really Saying
Salah’s Golden Boot crown in 2024/25 was indeed historic, but let’s be honest, there is no guarantee that this will happen again. With Haaland hungry, Isak rising, and Palmer peaking, the race is wide open.
Just remember: odds are signals, do not count on them as if they were certainties. And when the market underestimates the right striker, that’s when value bettors strike gold.
Resources
- Sports Betting Dime: 2025 Premier League Top Scorer Odds Tracker
- Premier League: Salah makes history with Golden Boot and Playmaker awards
