2025/26 PL Relegation Race Odds: Are Burnley & Leeds at Risk?

The Premier League sack race may get the headlines, but the relegation battle is where real club trauma, and, of course, betting value, lives. This season, all eyes are on the trio of newly promoted sides, with Sunderland, Burnley, and Leeds priced as the early favourites to go straight back down.

Relegation markets, especially in late summer, reflect more than just last season’s table; to be more precise, they factor in squad depth, net spend, fixture congestion, and lastly managerial volatility. And if you look closely, this year’s relegation odds reveal a stark warning for all three clubs returning from the Championship.

The Odds Are In: Three Promoted Clubs, Three Red Flags

Sunderland’s return to top-flight football is already marked by a lack of top-tier experience. As OnTheMinute describes, “Sunderland top the list of likely relegation candidates at 1.27, reflecting concerns over their lack of Premier League experience.”

According to The Telegraph, “Having ended last season in poor form, the Black Cats are worthy favourites to go straight back down. They have already lost one of their best players in Jobe Bellingham, who moved to Borussia Dortmund for £32 million.”

Burnley and Leeds: Familiar Faces, Familiar Problems

Burnley and Leeds both have recent Premier League scars, and that history may explain why bookmakers haven’t been overly generous. Despite topping the Championship last season, Leeds sit at 8/11 to be relegated, largely due to questions over defensive organisation and squad stability.

The Whites are rumoured to have £100 million to spend in the summer transfer window, and they already are believed to be closing in on a deal for Lecce striker Nikola Krstovic.

Burnley’s case is slightly more optimistic, but their odds still imply they are more likely to go down than stay up. Vincent Kompany’s earlier tactical experiments were punished in the top tier: will a return to pragmatism be enough?

The Middle Pack: Wolves and Brentford on Thin Ice?

Outside the promoted trio, Wolves and Brentford are also drawing speculative interest in the drop market. Wolves’ odds of 7/2 reflect lingering concerns over their thin squad and financial restrictions, while Brentford’s 5/1 odds seem to contradict their 10th-place finish last season.

Still, The Telegraph warns: “Brentford’s short price to go down after performing so well last season is largely down to their susceptibility to losing talent. Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa are being linked with moves, while manager Thomas Frank has departed for Tottenham Hotspur.”

What Bettors Should Take From These Odds

For savvy bettors, the early-season relegation markets offer windows of value, but keep this in mind: only if you read between the odds. Squad overhauls, fixture blocks, or even a high-profile injury in August could radically reshape the market within weeks.

Here are three takeaways:

• Don’t buy hype from promoted clubs: historically, 1–2 promoted sides go back down each season.
• Reputational bias plays a role: Leeds have a big-club aura, but odds reflect their fragility.
• Mid-table clubs with poor depth can nosedive fast if their season opens badly.

Final Word: Numbers Don’t Lie—But They Do Change

Bookmakers are already calling it: this could be a pretty brutal year for the returnees. And while odds aren’t destiny, they are a reality check. Sunderland, Burnley, and Leeds might feel like they’ve climbed the mountain, but at the end of the day, survival is the real summit.

If you’re tracking the relegation markets week to week, focus less on form tables and more on signals: injuries, dressing room rumblings, and manager press conferences. Odds shift fastest when reality hits hardest, and for some clubs, that first hard hit may already be on the way.

Sources

• The Telegraph: Premier League relegation odds: Sunderland favourites for drop
• OnTheMinute: Premier League relegation odds revealed: Is your club in danger for 2025/26?