Can Bukayo Saka Score 20+ Premier League Goals
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At only 23, Bukayo Saka goes into his 5th straight season as a starter, probably as Arsenal’s most valued player. But can he cross the 20-goal mark for the first time in the 2025/26 Premier League campaign? Let’s break down the numbers!
His 2024/25 Stats Look Quiet, But There’s a Catch
Saka ended the 2024/25 Premier League season with just 6 goals and 11 assists, though the headline figure hides the fact that he missed 13 matches, courtesy of a thigh niggle that kept him out of the away loss to Bournemouth in September and the lengthy hamstring injury he sustained against Crystal Palace in December.
In total, he played 25 league matches, meaning his 6-goal tally works out to about 0.24 goals per game. Over a full 38-game season, that translates to around 9–10 goals, which is not even halfway to 20. And even if we gave him some momentum credit, it’s a stretch to say he would’ve doubled his output just by staying fit.
Steady Growth Suggests the Ceiling’s Rising
Looking at the bigger picture, it’s clear Saka has been improving year-on-year:
- 2021/22 (age 20): 11 goals in 38 games
- 2022/23: 14 goals in 38 games
- 2023/24: 16 goals in 35 games
Those numbers show a clear upward curve. Without the injuries of 2024/25, it’s fair to think the 24-year old could’ve kept the trajectory and finally got his 20 goals. He was trending that way, and most of the Arsenal fanbase is convinced the England international will be picking up from where he left off in 2025/26.
Fitness Will Make or Break His Chances
Saka is not exactly an injury-prone player, but at the moment, injuries are the main thing holding him back. If he gets a full season, he’s got the skillset and experience to push past the 16 goals he managed in 2023/24. But that’s a big “if” considering the fact he was sidelined for over a third of last season.
Will Madueke Threaten His Minutes?
There’s also some noise about competition, with Arsenal recently acquiring the services of Noni Madueke, who also happens to be a natural right winger. To put it simply, he wasn’t signed to replace Saka, and realistically, he’s not much of a threat.
The 23-year-old is still raw and had an underwhelming 2024/25 season at Chelsea, with weaker stats and far less consistency. If anything, he’ll get minutes on the left, where he was deployed and looked better late in his Chelsea stint.
On the right, he will likely feature in cup games or in the Champions League group stages.
New Striker, New Dynamic
The bigger tactical shift lies elsewhere! Arsenal finally have a proper striker. After years of rotating between Lacazette, Nketiah, Gabriel Jesus, and even Kai Havertz (yes, really), they’ve signed one of Europe’s most lethal No. 9s in Victor Gyokeres.
The Swedish forward scored 29 goals in 33 games in 2023/24 and 39 in 33 in 2024/25—and will likely become the main focal point of Arsenal’s attack. He’s all about running in behind and finishing chances, and he’s the kind of striker who eats up goals, not shares them around.
That changes things for Saka. Instead of being asked to score and create, he may lean more into the creator role from the right.
So… 20+ Goals? Unlikely — But There’s a Better Bet
Our take? Saka probably won’t hit 20+ goals in the league next season. Not because he isn’t capable — but because his role is shifting, and a high-scoring striker tends to dominate the stats sheet. Think Salah during his best Firmino seasons or Mahrez playing alongside Vardy: the wide man feeds, the striker finishes.
That said, Saka could absolutely thrive in the G/A (Goals + Assists) market. With his vision, final ball, and chemistry on the wing, expect him to rack up double digits in both categories — something that could offer better value for punters.
Betting on It? Watch the Odds
Whether or not to back Saka for 20+ goals depends a lot on how the bookies price the market. If they make him a longshot—say, 7/1 to 11/1 or higher—there could be some cheeky value, especially if he starts the season on the right foot. But if he’s priced as a favourite (under 3/1), it would probably be too risky for the cautious bettor.
