Champions League: Can Liverpool Deliver After Domestic Glory?

Our favourite team, Liverpool, starts the 2025/26 Champions League as +600 favourites. These odds are lower than PSG’s, the champions of the last season, who knocked Liverpool out in the Round of 16. Why is this happening? Because they were the champs of the Premier League, that’s why.

The slang used by insiders is called “the English Premium”, and it’s very much used by bookmakers. This concept means that the odds are better based on the local success and not the European form of it. If you don’t know why you chose Liverpool at +600, you’re in the right place. Spoiler alert: it’s hype, not history.

Continue this article and learn how to see these differences like a pro better does.

The European Elite: Odds Breakdown and Market Reality

Our table below shows the current state of the UCL outright odds:

Still, while Liverpool’s domestic dominance is undisputed, recent history tells a more complicated story about translating that success into European glory. And UK players should think two times before treating this like a coronation.

According to ESPN, “Paris Saint-Germain beat Liverpool 4-1 in a penalty shootout to advance to the Champions League quarterfinals after winning a rip-roaring last-16 second-leg match at Anfield 1-0 on Tuesday ”.

The Oddschecker mentions that “Liverpool leads Champions League winner odds at 6/1, followed by PSG and Real Madrid, both at 7/1, then Arsenal at 8/1.”

What this shows is a clear disconnect: PSG had a great outcome with Inter 5–0 in the final and knocked out Liverpool en route, and yet they sit behind the Reds in the markets.

The Historical Cheat Sheet: Premier League Winners vs. European Glory

Before you start to bet, keep in mind that domestic titles don’t necessarily guarantee continental triumph.

• The Momentum Myth: Only 3 of the last 10 Premier League champions won the Champions League in the same or the following season.
• Fixture Fatigue: The Premier League is physically difficult, and that often leaves its top teams exhausted by the time the Champions League arrives.
• The PSG Precedent: PSG won the Champions League, but they even knocked Liverpool out early. And yet, they’re ranked behind Liverpool in the odds.
• Inflated Confidence: Three of the top five favourites come from England’s Premier League (EPL), a level of favouritism driven more by hype than hard numbers.

Oddschecker Champions League Winner odds: “Liverpool leads Champions League winner odds at 6/1, followed by PSG and Real Madrid, both at 7/1, then Arsenal at 8/1.”

The Value Hunt: Where Smart Money Avoids the Hype

Forget team loyalty for a second and find the value plays that the odds might be overlooking:

• Real Madrid (+650): Still the most decorated club in European history. They’re quietly placed behind Liverpool, even though Liverpool hasn’t won the UCL since 2019.
• PSG (+700): Defending champions being offered at third-favourite odds? That’s a rare opportunity, especially since they have a stronger team and already beat Liverpool last season.
• The English Premium Tax: Arsenal, Man City, and Chelsea are ranked high not because of their Champions League records, but because they play in the high-profile Premier League.

Insider Take: Bookmakers profit when people mistake strong league form for European readiness, especially with five English clubs jammed into the top 10 favourites.

The Psych Trick: How Domestic Glory Clouds European Vision

Here’s where even smart bettors can get caught out.

Bookies understand that a Premier League title carries emotional weight. The recency of Liverpool’s triumph feeds the “what’s next?” mindset. That’s when bettors double down on European glory, without adjusting for completely different opponents, formats, and pacing.

BetterGambling Insight: The Champions League exposes teams that coasted through their league. Betting on league winners might feel bold; it’s what the sportsbooks are hoping you’ll do.

The Debugged Belief: “League Form = European Form”

Let’s take a look at the myth below and understand how PL champions actually perform in the Champions League:

• The Myth: Premier League champions are always strong Champions League bets.
• The Reality: In the Champions League, teams get tested differently; tactics shift, schedules pile up, and weak spots in defence show fast.
• Why It Matters: Recognising the gap between hype and real performance helps you avoid wasting money on bets driven by emotion, not stats.

Intel From the Inside: The Squad Depth Reality

Liverpool has depth, but so do Real Madrid, PSG, and City. The difference? They’ve been here more recently, deeper into tournaments, managing the load across multiple fronts.

English clubs face packed schedules this season, especially those chasing both Premier League and Champions League success. Bookmakers often ignore how squad fatigue or player rotation affects results, and that’s exactly where punters can lose value.

So next time you see a Premier League winner priced as the Champions League favourite, remember what you’re really betting on: hype over history.

Sources

• ESPN: PSG 1-0 Liverpool (Mar 11, 2025) Final Score
• Oddschecker: Champions League Winner Betting Odds