What’s the Probability of Chelsea Rehiring José Mourinho for a Third Stint?

José Mourinho has already defied Premier League managerial logic twice. He came back to Chelsea once, and now, nearly a decade later, he hovers again. Not formally in talks, not officially ruled out. But still in the odds. Still in the narrative.

This isn’t a prediction article. It’s a probability dissection, based on past precedent, club behaviour, fan psychology, and market movement. We’re not asking if Mourinho will return. We’re asking: what are the real odds that he does?

The Return Narrative: Why Mourinho Still Hangs Around

According to X posts, Jose Mourinho has become the first runner-up for the manager place at Chelsea:

𝙈𝘼𝙅𝙊𝙍 𝘽𝙍𝙀𝘼𝙆𝙄𝙉𝙂: Jose Mourinho has become favourite for the Chelsea job.

[@standardsport via @Blue_Footy] pic.twitter.com/QTjwaBCIej

— Transfer Sector (@TransferSector) May 24, 2024

But why?

Mourinho’s legacy at Chelsea isn’t just historical, it’s cyclical. He’s the only manager in the club’s modern era to be rehired, and he won titles in two distinct chapters. Every time Chelsea spirals into tactical confusion or dressing room unrest, fans and pundits alike revive the idea of a “Mourinho reset.”

The reasoning is simple: he’s currently available, he still refers to Chelsea as “home,” and he’s emotionally tied to a club where he once defined its modern identity. More importantly, he thrives in instability, and Chelsea, in its post-Abramovich transition, has plenty of that. When he left Roma in January 2024, Mourinho said he was looking for a place “where the fire still exists.” That wasn’t a promise, but it was a signal. Not a guarantee, but a blueprint.

Hearing Fans Out: They Want Mourinho Back

Now that you have the bigger picture in mind, let’s look at what the players and fans are signaling. Based on recent betting market shifts and social media chatter, there’s growing momentum for José Mourinho’s return to Chelsea. Odds that were once 25/1 plummeted to 3/1 within hours, reflecting the buzz after Mourinho was reportedly seen at Stamford Bridge.

While no official confirmation has surfaced, this sudden surge in betting confidence often follows credible sightings or insider leaks.

Social media platform X has also seen a wave of speculative and nostalgic posts from fans and pundits alike. As X account PurelyFootball suggests:

🚨Jose Mourinho is now second favourite to become the new Chelsea manager.

Odds were 25/1 this morning now 3/1 after reportedly being spotted at Stamford Bridge.

Can the special one return Chelsea to their glory days? 👀 pic.twitter.com/bPS7Y42sBb

— PurelyFootball ℗ (@PurelyFootball) May 24, 2024

This isn’t just wishful thinking. It’s a sign of how deep Mourinho’s legacy runs among Chelsea supporters—so much so that even a hint of his return reshapes public sentiment and betting odds alike. Whether or not the club acts on this wave remains to be seen, but the appetite is clearly there.

Past Patterns: Chelsea’s Managerial Triggers Revisited

To calculate the probability of a third stint, we need to understand what drives Chelsea to change managers and to recycle them.

Let’s look at hiring conditions from the last 20 years:

The more these triggers stack, the more Chelsea leans into known quantities. Mourinho is many things, but above all, he’s a controlled risk.

Market Signals: What the Odds Reveal Behind the Curtain

Bookmakers rarely publish odds for manager returns unless market rumours or insider sentiment reach a threshold.

In Mourinho’s case:

• Post-Spurs (2021): Listed at 5/1 for Chelsea return within 2 years
• Post-Roma (early 2024): Floated at 8/1, behind options like De Zerbi and Pochettino extension
• Now (Q2 2025): Not actively listed, but private books are pricing between 10/1 to 14/1

Let’s simulate the implied probability formula:

Implied Probability = (1 / Decimal Odds) × 100
At 10/1 odds → (1 / 11) × 100 = ~9.09%
At 14/1 odds → (1 / 15) × 100 = ~6.67%

This range reflects long-shot but credible territory, similar to Arteta-to-Barcelona speculation before Xavi’s announcement.

But here’s the nuance: Mourinho’s return odds aren’t just tied to Chelsea. They’re linked to how badly other managers perform and how noisy fan unrest becomes.

Resources

• OddsChecker historical archive
• Transfermarkt Manager History – Chelsea FC