Do Clean Sheets Happen More Often Than You Think?
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Goals are great, but there’s just something about a team refusing to concede. We like to think it’s because this rarely happens, or maybe it’s because clean sheets don’t get the love they deserve. This guide looks to explore the probability of clean sheets happening in football and how wise it is to stick a fiver on a match ending with only one team or neither of the teams scoring. Here’s data from the top 5 European leagues revealing what the bookies might not be telling you.
Are Clean Sheets More Common Than Bookmaker Odds Suggest?
Bookies base betting odds on factors like team form, player availability, and past patterns. But do these odds always reflect the likelihood of a clean sheet?
Let’s work that out with an example, where the odds for a clean sheet have been set at 2.50.
The implied probability in this case would be: (12.50) × 100 = 40%
If statistics show that a team keeps clean sheets in, say, 50% of its matches, the actual probability would be higher than the bookmaker’s implied probability.
Using Poisson Distribution to Predict Zero Goals Conceded
The Poisson distribution is the most accurate solution we have for determining the number of times a random event occurs in a fixed timeframe. In football, we use this model to predict the number of goals a team will score or concede in a game.
P(0 goals conceded) = e^(-λ)0! = e^(-λ)
In this formula, e represents the base of the natural logarithm and λ the average number of goals the team concedes per match. This means that if a team concedes 0.8 goals per match on average:
P(0 goals conceded) = e^(-0.8) ≈ 0.449
Which Leagues and Teams Are Built for Clean Sheets?
Some teams are known for their heavily defensive styles of play, but regular changes in squads and managers have ensured cultures don’t last long. Atletico Madrid might be one of the few clubs that have maintained their defence-first identity for so long, all while regularly fighting for the title and making UCL appearances each season. Experts attribute this to the club sticking to one manager for over a decade, while many European teams change the management every other season.
On the league level, tactical shifts occur way less frequently. Certain leagues are known for their defensive strength and have remained loyal to this pattern of play for decades.
English, German, and Spanish teams typically go with the traditional system of four men at the back. This ensures more flexibility and spares bodies for quicker transitions when it’s time to attack.
Don’t get us wrong, though—each one of these leagues has a distinct style. In Spain, for instance, possession is everything. The ball stays more in midfield. The transition to the final third is hardly rushed like in the Premier League, where you will see long balls being blasted to wingers, strikers, and wing-backs making runs in behind.
In Germany, the game blends high pressing and rapid counter-attacks, which explains the league’s signature intensity and high pace throughout the 90.
Should You Bet on Clean Sheets? Expected Value and Risk
When evaluating whether to bet on a clean sheet or not, it’s always worth considering the bet’s expected value and whether it is positive for you or the house. Here is the formula for it:
EV = (P × Odds) − (1 – P)
So, if a team has a 50% chance of keeping a clean sheet and the bookie quotes the odds at 2.50 (decimal odds), the “profit per win” would be” 1.50, as 2.50 odds mean a profit of £1.50 for every £1 staked. The probability of losing will remain 50%, and the loss per bet will be the £1 staked.
EV = (0.5 × 1.5) − (0.5 × 1) = 0.75 − 0.5 = 0.25
And now to the most important part—which teams are most likely to give you a positive EV on clean sheets? Even without the stats, sides like Atletico Madrid come to mind. Simeone’s lads love a 1-0 win late on and aren’t ashamed of it. They might not win style points, but they’ll sure win you returns if the bookies are sleeping on them. Serie A clubs like Juventus or Napoli also sneak into this category when facing weaker opposition, because nothing screams “we’re not here to entertain” like a five-man defensive line right behind a pair of holding midfielders.
