Euro 2028: Will England Finally End Their Drought?
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In tournament trading rooms, there’s a nickname for the odds bump host nations receive: the “Home Nation Premium.” And right now, England wears it like a crown.
Despite not having won a European Championship in their history, England enters Euro 2028 as the +350 favourite, ahead of defending champions Spain and historically dominant sides like Germany and France. Why?
According to odds-compilers, playing at home gives teams a small but real advantage: about 0.4 goals per match. But in England’s case, bookmakers are pricing that edge like it’s worth a full goal, turning patriotic hope into overconfidence.
That’s where smart punters pause.
- The European Hierarchy: Market Reality vs Tournament Truth
- The Historical Cheat Sheet: Host Nation Reality Check
- The Value Hunt: Beyond the Obvious Choices
- The Psych Trick: How Home Dreams Create Betting Nightmares
- The Debugged Belief: “Home Advantage = Tournament Victory”
- Intel from the Inside: The Qualification Wildcard
- Resources
The European Hierarchy: Market Reality vs Tournament Truth
History shows that just because a team plays at home doesn’t mean they’ll win, and that’s often where smarter bets can be found.
| Country | Odds Range | Implied Probability | Euro 2024 Performance | Host Advantage | Historical Euro Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | +350 to +375 | 21–22% | Runners-up | Yes | 0 |
| Spain | +400 to +410 | 20–21% | Winners | No | 3 (1964, 2008, 2012) |
| Germany | +500 to +525 | 16–17% | Quarter-finals | No | 3 (1972, 1980, 1996) |
| France | +650 to +700 | 13–14% | Semi-finals | No | 2 (1984, 2000) |
| Portugal | +1000 to +1100 | 9–10% | Round of 16 | No | 1 (2016) |
| Netherlands | +1200 | 8% | Semi-finals | No | 1 (1988) |
“The current odds favourite to win the Euros is England. This is huge news for the Men’s England National team, which has never won a UEFA European Football Championship,” added MyTopSportsbooks.
At first glance, England’s pricing seems logical; after all, they were Euro 2024 finalists and now play on home soil. However, when you examine the facts, these odds appear to be more based on fan hype than actual performance.
The Historical Cheat Sheet: Host Nation Reality Check
Insider perspective: Making a host the favourite without past success isn’t about stats; it’s about feeding fans’ hope.
- The Host Curse: Only 2 of the last 8 Euro hosts even reached the final (Portugal 2004 and France 2016), and neither won.
- England’s Drought: Despite World Cup glory in 1966, England has never won the Euros: a 58-year gap clearly unmatched by any other major football nation.
- Spain’s Resume: Three-time champions and defending Euro winners, yet they surely trail England in the betting markets.
- Germany’s Consistency: They’re always strong in knockout games, but recent stumbles have made them look weaker than they are.
As MyTopSportsbooks mentions, this may come as a surprise given how much of a powerhouse England is, and that they have won the FIFA World Cup twice. One would think the Euros would be a little bit easier.
The Value Hunt: Beyond the Obvious Choices
Let’s take off the patriotic scarf for a moment.
- Spain (+400): They just won Euro 2024. Seeing Spain below England in the odds shows just how much people overrate recent results.
- Germany (+525): They’re always dangerous at tournaments, and if they hit form, those odds could be a bargain..
- France (+650): They still have top players and a proven track record in big matches. Just ask 2018.
BetterGambling Insider Intel: The market’s biggest blind spot is treating home advantage like a guarantee rather than a slight statistical edge.
While headlines focus on England, smart bettors are eyeing teams with a stronger record, not just good vibes.
The Psych Trick: How Home Dreams Create Betting Nightmares
Euro betting markets are some of the most emotionally charged in the game. And bookmakers like it.
They know home crowds, stadium banners, and TV hype pull heartstrings; that’s why hosts often have lower odds than they deserve.
It’s a trap for casual punters.
They fall into the “finally our time” storylines, thinking it’s England’s destiny. But ask France 2016 or Portugal 2004: playing at home doesn’t guarantee a win.
The Debugged Belief: “Home Advantage = Tournament Victory”
The Myth: Hosting the Euros guarantees a deep run or title win.
The Reality: Host advantage helps, but only slightly, and doesn’t erase tactical flaws, pressure, or poor form.
Why It Matters: When emotions inflate the odds, smart bettors look for better value in overlooked teams.
Intel from the Inside: The Qualification Wildcard
One overlooked angle? England got a free pass into the tournament, which changes how they prepare.
Unlike Spain, Germany, or France, England skipped qualifying games, so they haven’t had to test their lineup or tactics under pressure.
That can backfire.
Teams that walk into tournaments often struggle with intensity once the knockout rounds begin. Odds don’t usually reflect how missing real matches can hurt a team’s sharpness.
That’s the kind of detail smart bettors use to get ahead.
Resources
- MyTopSportsbooks – UEFA Euro 2028 Betting
