How Likely Is a Hat-Trick in Professional Football?
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Whenever you’re sizing up a bookmaker, one thing you’ll probably look out for is the kinds of offers they’re running, especially those tied to goal scorers. A popular one is the hat-trick bonus, where you back a player to score anytime, and if they go on to bag three, you get a boosted payout.
It’s a tempting offer because you’re not putting more money down or backing long odds. But then again, bookies don’t offer value without reason. So just how often does a hat-trick actually happen?
How Often Do Hat-Tricks Actually Happen in Pro Football?
Over the past 30 Premier League seasons, there have been 361 hat-tricks across about 11,400 matches. That works out to roughly 12 hat-tricks per season, or one every 31.5 games. So if you’re watching a random match, there’s only about a 3.2% chance you’ll see a hat-trick.
Now, to dig a little deeper, we can use something called the Poisson distribution, a fancy mathematical way to predict how often rare events happen, like someone scoring three goals in a game.
Let’s say a top striker has a decent day and is expected to score about 1.1 goals—which is what xG or “expected goals” tries to measure—what are the odds they bang in exactly three?
Well, plugging those numbers into the formula gives us about a 7.4% chance of a hat-trick.
So even if a player is in form, getting into good positions, and taking plenty of shots, they’ll still only score a hat-trick in 1 out of every 13–14 matches on average, which is rare but not exactly lottery-ticket rare.
Players With the Most Hat-Tricks Scored in History
When it comes to hat-tricks, Cristiano Ronaldo leads the charts with 66 to his name, 50 for club sides and 10 for Portugal.
Right behind him is Lionel Messi, who’s netted 59, including 48 for Barcelona and 9 for Argentina, with the latest being against New England Revolution in the MLS.
Robert Lewandowski follows with over 30 hat-tricks, most scored in the Bundesliga, along with several for the Polish national team.
Erling Haaland, despite his age, has already surpassed 15, amassed across stints at Salzburg, Dortmund, Manchester City, and Norway. Sergio Agüero rounds out our top-five list with 18, including a Premier League record of 12 hat-tricks with Manchester City.
League-by-League Breakdown of Hat-Trick Frequency
Football leagues across the world see different hat-trick frequencies, thanks in part to playing styles, defensive quality, and the presence (or absence) of elite finishers. In Europe’s top five leagues, the numbers vary more than you might expect:
- Premier League: Averaged around 12.5 hat-tricks per season between 2009/10 and 2021/22.
- La Liga: Has a slightly higher average, with about 14 hat-tricks per season, boosted massively by the Messi–Ronaldo duopoly.
- Bundesliga: Sees roughly 10 hat-tricks per season, with Lewandowski alone accounting for several.
- Serie A: Around 8–9 hat-tricks per season, with fewer one-man goal machines.
- Ligue 1: Typically 6 to 8 hat-tricks per season, though Mbappé has recently tilted the average up.
Are Hat-Trick Odds in Betting Markets Accurate?
Bookies use statistical models to set odds for events like hat-tricks. For example, a player with an expected goal rate of 1.1 might have odds suggesting a 7.4% chance of scoring a hat-trick.
However, these models overlook important details like recent player form, injuries, and tactical changes, which have been shown to have a significant impact on the chances of a player scoring multiple goals. Therefore, while betting odds provide a general estimate, they rarely provide an accurate reflection of the true probability.
Resources We Used for Study
