What's the Likelihood of a Substitute Scoring a Goal?

In the EPL 2023/24 season, substitutes scored 12.76% of all goals. 50% of these had a direct effect on the match outcome, which also means quite a number of bets were affected.

Therefore, as a bettor, understanding the likelihood of a substitute scoring a goal is important for making the right bets and slowly but surely mastering the statistics. For bookies, getting these probabilities is also important for setting odds correctly. But what do the true facts say? Let’s use statistics to get the right figures.

Super Sub or Statistical Fluke? How Often It Happens

You may be surprised, but luck and player quality play a huge role in what happens when a sub comes on, even though the likelihood of goals is influenced by other factors such as 5 subs per team and extra time. Combining these gives more opportunities for subs to make a difference.

We already know that in the EPL (2023/24 season), 12.76% of all goals came from the bench. For other leagues, we can use these EPL stats to create a statistical model to calculate this probability.

• EPL Substitute Goal Rate: 15.4% = 0.154
• Total goals scored in the league: 1,246
• Goals scored by substitutes: 159

To get 0.154, we had to divide 159 by 1246. Therefore, the formula to get the substitute goal rate is: 

Substitute Goal Rate (%) = (Total Goals by Substitutes ÷ Total Goals in the League) × 100

One Chance, One Goal? Efficiency off the Bench

Introducing a substitute player is not just about adding fresh legs or replacing tired ones. It’s about putting the right player at the right time so he/she can utilise their skills (and new energy) for the team’s benefit.

Remember, subs usually have less time to make an impact because they often come on in the second half, or even near the end. Sometimes, a sub will have just 2 minutes to play before the referee blows the whistle.

Some players are very good at turning chances into goals quickly, and a good example is João Pedro (Brighton), who scored four goals as a sub in 2023/24. Another interesting statistic is that Jhon Durán (for Aston Villa) scored 10 goals off the bench since he joined.

Away from that, managers know they can change a game by picking the right subs. A famous example is from May 26th, 2018, when Zinedine Zidane brought on Gareth Bale for Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League final. Bale scored and helped Real Madrid win again.

Timing Is Everything – When Subs Strike Most

You probably know this, but we have to say it anyway. One thing that separates football teams from one another is when they bring new players into the game. Coaches watch how tired their own players and the opponents are before choosing who to bring on.

This directly affects when the sub-goal will be scored. When we analysed most matches across different European football leagues, we noticed that substitutes score closer to the end of the game.

Take this, for example, in the 2023/24 Premier League season, more goals were scored after the 86th minute than ever before. We further narrowed these numbers and realised that about 91 goals were scored in the 90th minute or in injury time.

This shows you that late subs can be very powerful. But even with these ‘powers’, managers must also closely watch the other team’s subs. If the opponent brings on fresh defenders, it can stop your own fresh attackers.

For example, if the other team’s defenders are tired, it’s a good idea to bring on quick strikers. But if the other team brings on fresh defenders, it might not work as well.

Bench Powerhouses – Teams That Turn to Impact Players

We can say it’s luck for some teams, but others have effectively and consistently used their substitutes to influence match outcomes. We looked at the Premier League 2023/24 season and noted that Brighton led with 12 goals from substitutes. Liverpool, Arsenal, and Newcastle closely followed, each with 11 such goals. 

Interestingly, Liverpool’s substitutes contributed to 22 goals. This was the highest in the league. Manchester City also have a history of effectively using super subs. And they even have a history of bringing subs who give the game more vibe and fun, and momentum.

One of their key matches was a Man City win over Aston Villa on the last day of the 2021/22 Premier League season. Here, Ilkay Gundogan, a substitute introduced in the 68th minute of the match, gave them two goals.

The then manager, Pep Guardiola, knew who, where and when to introduce to the game. And this was very important because otherwise, they would lose more than just the game. The EPL cup was at risk, and any misstep would lead to Arsenal overtaking them by points and taking the win.

In the 2024/25 EPL season (so far), the most valuable substitute benches fielded by Premier League teams include:

Best Substitutes to Have Scored and Their Impact

Looking at individual player contributions, some have stood out as great scorers every time they’re introduced on the pitch. They have consistently delivered goals and assists from the bench. Let’s highlight some of them below.

But are these players super subs, or is it just luck? Well, individual expected goals (xG), substitution windows, and goal timing patterns play a role. If the timing is bad, no magic will work.

Can You Spot a Scoring Sub Before Kickoff?

One of the most effective ways to check how good a sub is at scoring is by using this formula:

Goals per 90 Minutes = (Goals Scored ÷ Minutes Played) × 90

Let’s look at João Pedro from Brighton again:

• • Goals off the bench: 4
  • Minutes played as a sub: 460

• Goals per 90 = (4 ÷ 460) × 90 = 0.78

So, João Pedro was scoring nearly 1 goal every full match he played as a sub. That’s how you can identify a scoring sub even before the match starts.

How We Got Our Information – For Further Reading

• BBC Analysis, Are substitutes having an impact more than ever before? – BBC Sport
• EPL Stats on Substitutes, Season trends: Goals from substitutes on the rise again
• Opta Analyst, Time to Make a Change: Why Premier League Substitutes Are Increasingly Important