Historical Odds: How Likely Is It That Tottenham Would Rehire Mauricio Pochettino by 2026?
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The phrase “unfinished business” gets thrown around in football a lot. But when it comes to Mauricio Pochettino and Tottenham Hotspur, the connection runs deeper than most managerial exits. So, what are the real odds that he comes back? If we strip out the sentiment and look at historical data, club trends, and timing windows, we start to see a clear picture.
What the Odds Say – Then vs. Now
In 2021, Pochettino was 5/2 favourite to return after Mourinho’s sacking, according to most UK books. Moreover, according to BBC, he even expressed his desire to come back: “When I left the club I always remember one interview I said I would like one day to come back to Tottenham.” Reports suggested he was Levy’s first choice, but PSG wouldn’t release him mid-contract.
Today, those odds have widened. Most major books now place him at 12/1 or longer to return by the end of 2025, though that fluctuates based on Postecoglou’s form and Poch’s USMNT commitments.
Let’s look at odds movement over time to spot trends:
| Year | Average Odds on Return | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 5/2 | Active favourite |
| 2022 | 7/1 | Off radar |
| 2023 | 9/2 (during Conte tension) | Short-term speculation |
| 2025 | 12/1 | Dormant, but not dead |
Obstacles Standing in the Way of a Reunion
While the emotional case for a Pochettino return is strong, there are clear barriers. First, he just took the USA national team job, with a view toward the 2026 World Cup. That contract likely runs at least until mid-2026. Unless Spurs are prepared to wait or buy him out, it creates a practical block.
Second, Levy may hesitate to admit what many fans already believe: sacking him was a strategic error. Rehiring Poch could feel like a concession of failure unless the timing is wrapped in a fresh PR cycle.
Finally, Postecoglou still has momentum. As long as Spurs are performing and the fanbase is behind him, the club has no incentive to switch.
In football, long odds don’t always stay long. Managerial exits often happen fast. But right now, Pochettino’s return sits in the zone of “emotionally appealing, structurally inconvenient.” The implied odds sit around 20%, based on historical rehire data and Tottenham’s hiring patterns. So would we bet on it? Not yet. But keep an eye on 2026!
Curious about more odds regarding coaches returning to their old teams, or taking over new ones? Why not check out our articles below:
- What’s the Probability of Chelsea Rehiring José Mourinho for a Third Stint?
- Odds Breakdown: Could Zinedine Zidane Finally Take Over at Manchester United?
References
- BBC Sport – Pochettino to manage Tottenham again
