How Often Does a Manager Get Sacked After European Qualification? Aston Villa's Case Reviewed
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When a club secures a spot in European competition, most fans assume the manager’s job is safe. But in modern football, success doesn’t always guarantee stability. In fact, history shows us that finishing in the top six can be the beginning of new scrutiny, not the end of it. Let’s look at how often managers are dismissed after European qualification!
How Often Managers Are Sacked After Finishing in the Top 6
Across the last 13 completed Premier League seasons (2010–2023), 53 managers finished inside the top 6. Of those, 12 were either sacked or left their role within the next 12 months (a 22.6% post-qualification turnover rate).
Implied probability of a post-qualification sacking (based on historical frequency):
22.6% = 4.43 odds in decimal format (approx. 7/2)
This means that roughly one in five managers who qualify for Europe don’t survive the year after.
For example, as Football365 highlights, “Ten Hag could join a growing list of managers who won trophies and were sacked within a year,” referencing a trend that includes Roberto Di Matteo and Louis van Gaal among others.
Why European Qualification Doesn’t Guarantee Job Security
The assumption that success buys time is a comforting one, but not always realistic. European qualification might look like job security on the surface, but history suggests otherwise.
A top-six finish often resets expectations – what was once a success quickly becomes the bare minimum. Clubs and boards begin to question whether the manager has already taken the team as far as possible, especially if the results were seen as overperformance.
More matches and tighter schedules in Europe can also strain squad depth and expose weaknesses in leadership or man-management. Even managers who meet targets aren’t immune to criticism, particularly if their playing style is uninspiring or they underperform in high-profile fixtures. Ultimately, qualifying for Europe raises the bar and the pressure.
What Usually Triggers a Post-Qualification Exit
Patterns do emerge. Based on historical sackings of managers post-European qualification, here are the most common triggers:
- Early-season slump: A rough 6–8 game stretch early in the next campaign often seals the deal.
- European embarrassment: Losing to a lesser team in qualifying rounds or the group stage creates high-pressure narratives.
Board changes: New sporting directors or owners tend to install “their guy”, even if the current manager is still delivering.
Star-player unrest: When top players fall out with the manager, the board usually picks the dressing room.
Consider Paul Lambert’s case at Aston Villa, who was sacked in 2015 after 10 winless league games, despite prior progress. The club said, “The club has parted company with Lambert with immediate effect”, following a growing fan backlash.
And the wins by Paul’s side were quite obvious, as various X posts outline:
Paul Lambert's PL record:
At Norwich (2011-12)
P38 W12 D11 L15
At Aston Villa (2012-15)
P101 W25 D26 L50
Total
P139 W37 D37 L65 pic.twitter.com/oKtULOdWGB— Sky Sports Statto (@SkySportsStatto) January 15, 2018
Aston Villa’s Season in Focus: Success or Warning Sign?
Unai Emery’s 2024/25 campaign with Aston Villa has been a textbook case of overachievement. The team secured a top-five finish, broke into Champions League places at points during the season, and showed tactical maturity far beyond expectations.
The numbers tell a strong story:
- Goals scored: 68 (highest since 2007/08)
- Win rate: 61% in all competitions
- Points total: 68 (their highest of the Premier League era)
- Implied probability to qualify for UCL mid-season (based on betting odds): 25% in
- January; rose to 55% by March
But the form in April-May saw cracks emerge. Villa dropped points against bottom-half sides and laboured to finish strongly. This pattern, late-season softening, is statistically a red flag.
From 2010–2023, 6 of the 12 managers sacked after European qualification had a points-per-game (PPG) dip of >0.4 in the final 10 games. Villa’s PPG drop in the final 8 matches? From 2.1 to 1.4. That kind of curve can shift narratives fast.
As AstonVillaNews.co.uk recently speculated, “Could Unai Emery’s late-season form end up boosting Ange Postecoglou’s sack odds instead?”—a reflection of how narratives quickly shift based on short-term performance.
How Villa’s Board Has Acted in Similar Moments Before
Historically, Aston Villa’s ownership hasn’t been trigger-happy. But they have made big calls when ambition and momentum meet a ceiling.
In 2016, Remi Garde was let go after just five months, despite being seen as a long-term project hire. The decision to back Dean Smith after promotion was initially praised, but once European ambitions emerged, the club pivoted swiftly to Steven Gerrard. Then, he was dismissed less than a year into a new contract when league form dipped, even though Villa were technically “on track” for mid-table.
The Telegraph wrote in 2023 that Unai Emery has “transformed Aston Villa into Champions League contenders,” but also noted that with such ambition comes “increased scrutiny and fewer excuses”.
What Bettors Should Watch if the Pressure Builds Again
If you’re watching Villa futures or sack race odds, here’s what to track: Europa League qualifiers, odds drift, boardroom changes and transfer window tension. Villa’s rise under Emery has been impressive. But betting trends and past data tell us that European qualification is not a shield, but a pressure amplifier.
Managers who thrive under pressure may ride the momentum. But if Villa stumble out of the gate next season or crash in a European group stage, odds on Emery to leave could tumble. Historical odds say 1 in 5 who qualify won’t last the year. For sharp bettors? That’s a pattern worth watching.
Resources:
- Football365, Ten Hag sack: 10 other managers who lost their jobs straight after winning trophies
- Fox Sports, Paul Lambert sacked: Aston Villa part ways with maligned manager after 10 winless EPL games
- Aston Villa News UK, Emery ‘to get Postecoglou fired’ as sack odds revealed after Aston Villa scenes
- The Telegraph UK, Unai Emery’s Aston Villa success will get other managers the sack
